Cash out of Coarse Grains
Money is still flowing out of corn which will continue to pressure prices until it slows or stops. December corn futures ended down 17 to $3.72/bu. US harvest is at least a month behind which once would have driven the market crazy but not yet/now. Yields are large but this is also the early part of the crop. US farmer is sitting on his corn and probably will do so into 2009 as cash is not a problem.

The sorghum market is as weak as we can remember basis wise. New crop basis is circa 70 c/bu under CBT May corn. This would arguably make it around 20 c/bu under FOB which is well below export parity, problem is logistically it’s hard to get it to port. Sorghum needs both exports and domestic consumption to eat current high stocks.

Globally, we have seen some pressure on the malt/feed spreads, especially in Europe where values have narrowed considerably. Some of the sting has been taken out of local malt/feed spreads too, with the southeast coming back from the $90/t highs to $70/t recently, supported by dry conditions in Vic and now, with harvest rain concerns this week in the west, spreads may steady somewhat. On the contrary, rains forecast for next week in the Eastern States (albeit it with low confidence at this stage) could provide some relief to crops in the southern and eastern areas but will likely be too late for many.

Local forward cash prices for barley were mainly higher after the weekend. A strong gain occurred at Kwinana which closed $10 higher for both malt ($300/t) and feed ($236/t). Malt barley prices were unchanged at Newcastle ($293/t), Brisbane ($310/t), Geelong ($325/t), and Port Adelaide ($300/t). Feed prices at Newcastle closed $2 higher to $203/t.